Thursday, April 14, 2011

Russia in the New Middle East


The shocks that have lately rocked the Middle East surprised Russia, along with many other international actors, and the new reality, marked by general instability and uncertainty, has left it at a loss for action. However, Russia’s strong desire to maintain its status in the Middle East has driven it to seek political alternatives that will enable it to play a role in shaping the future of the region. The considerations guiding Russia are on the one hand the risk of losing all previous achievements and perhaps even suffer similar processes of civilian rebellion, and on the other hand, the possible benefits of the revolutionary changes, perhaps entailing an enhancement of its regional status. Thus Russia appears determined to promote new political initiatives vis-à-vis all regional elements, including the Israeli-Palestinian track.
Until the start of recent events, Russia’s status with regard to the collapsing authoritarian regimes was fairly comfortable. These regimes appeared stable, curbed the radical elements, and were good business partners (with Libya alone Russia has an arms deal valued at $4 billion; at the moment it is unclear what will become of it). There were also political partnerships (including anti-Western alliances) created laboriously over many years. Today, Russia’s leaders feel that the revolutions in the Middle East have generated far reaching changes that will continue to affect Russia for decades. One negative ramification is the direct threat to Russia from radical Islam should the latter take control of the Middle East as a result of the revolutions. Similarly, the negative example of Middle Eastern events is liable to recur in Muslim areas of Russia and elsewhere in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Two, there may be damages at the global level should the democratic scenario prevail instead, particularly the dismantling of the anti-Western camp on which Russia had based its international policies. Similarly, a no less serious scenario depicts Russia elbowed aside by competitors (such as China).
At the same time, there are positive aspects to these events vis-à-vis Russia’s interests, such as the economic angle, especially the steep increases in oil prices, assuring, at least for now, significant earnings for Russia, which is quickly becoming a leading supplier of energy sources. Should Russia also succeed in developing good relations with the new regimes and perhaps even reshaping a bloc of supportive nations, the developments in the Middle East will all in all have been positive from Russia’s perspective.
From the outset, Russian political activity in light of these events was marked by flexibility, including turning its back on collapsing regimes and supporting the rebels, even if this entailed some discomfort and vacillation between cooperation with the West and responding to domestic public opinion that supported the previous regimes. This was especially true with regard to Libya, when President Medvedev finally decided to join the UN resolution calling for sanctions against the Qaddafi regime and not undermine Resolution 1973. This decision earned him sweeping criticism, including from Prime Minister Putin (revealing, incidentally, some of the internal disagreements within the top Russia leadership). Yet despite this support, Russia continues to oppose the use of force against Qaddafi as well as against other states in the region. This typical conduct – sending conflicting messages – reflects Russia’s intentions to have the best of all worlds: to maintain good relations with the West, especially the United States; not to damage relations with Qaddafi, should he survive; yet also to prepare for good relations with an alternative post-Qaddafi Libyan leadership. Russia will conduct itself on the basis of similar principles with regard to other states in the region as well, all the while trying to earn points on the international arena.
This policy reflects the Russian dilemma on the Middle Eastern crisis. It seems that Russia’s preference, should it be required to part from the old regimes, is to support trends that are not readily identifiable as pro-Western or democratic, though the rise of radical Islamists is equally unpalatable. It seems that “moderate” authoritarian regimes in conjunction with Islamic elements, lacking a clear Western orientation, are Russia’s tolerated preference.
Some among Russian elite have become increasingly convinced of America’s decline on the international arena, enhancing dreams of opportunities to promote Russia’s influence in the Middle East and on the international scene at large. Indeed, Russia is busily at work in the region and in suggesting the promotion of new political initiatives, including on the Israeli-Palestinian track.
Of mention here are the intensive contacts Russia has had with most of the region’s nations. Particularly noteworthy is a sequence of visits to Moscow in late March by Prime Minister Netanyahu, the chairman of the Palestinian Authority, and the Saudi foreign minister, as well as Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s visit to Egypt. All of these were accompanied by Russian expressions of the importance of renewing the peace process particularly at present because of the positive potential it has to calm the entire region. In this context, Israel is perceived as being more flexible given the understanding that the region’s events have negative implications for it. All of this suggests that in addition to wanting to coordinate positions with central states in the region in light of the new international reality, Russia is also trying to initiate activity in the realm of the peace process. Dialogue and coordination between Russia and Israel are continuing beyond Prime Minister Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow. The next stage is expected to take place at the forthcoming gathering of the Quartet, for which a new European proposal is being formulated. It is not inconceivable that Russia is putting together something of its own along similar lines or at least scoring points in order to promote decisions it favors and ensure Russian participation of a more influential nature than in the past.
In any case, it seems that a Russian proposal for the Quartet will, this time too, include the familiar model with some modification reflecting the spirit of the times. As far as the Russians are concerned, this time the Quartet should make constructive decisions that can contribute positively and calmly to the situation in the region in general. The proposal being formulated refers to jumpstarting a dialogue between the sides under the aegis of the Quartet. This process would be continuous, extended, and have clear interim objectives, which if met could represent achievements enabling continued progress, or if lacking, would allow for ascribing responsibility to the various parties. The process would be launched with an international conference in Moscow. The possibility of including China and India as observers is also being considered, as at a later stage they would be able to assist in advancing decisions. Although this proposal has no attractive innovations, it does give cause for some cautious optimism among its authors; it seems reasonable that it will in fact be laid on the Quartet’s table at its next gathering.
Thus, in the current uncertain reality of the Middle East, Russia, after a fairly rapid rally, is trying to navigate through the these complex events, while exercising damage control and examining possible future actions to maintain its status in the region. Notable is the attempt to formulate alternatives to previous relations that have collapsed with regard to surviving and new regimes, while taking advantage of the situation for its own gains. As part of Russia’s political efforts to upgrade its international standing, it is also intent on shaping a bloc of supporting nations. At the same time it seems that Russia is designing a move to promote the Israeli-Palestinian political process under its direction. The picture that emerges may thus be summarized as the start of a renewed contest between the large powers for influence in a new Middle East.

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Monday, April 11, 2011

UN General Assembly "Uniting for Palestine"


Decision making in the UN General Assembly is on the basis of one vote for each member state. This may reflect the principle of sovereign equality of states, but clearly a situation where Micronesia and China have equal weight does not reflect political reality. The drafters of the UN Charter were therefore careful not to grant the General Assembly any executive or legislative power. Except on matters of procedure and budget, all General Assembly resolutions are only recommendations. The other main organ of the UN is the Security Council, which was granted the primary responsibility for matters of international security and peace. In contrast to the General Assembly, Council decisions are binding if adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.
During the early years of the Cold War, the Soviet Union used its veto power in the Security Council to prevent decisions being taken against North Korea. At the time the UN General Assembly was dominated by the Western states, and in order to try and bypass the stalemated Security Council the United States initiated General Assembly Resolution 377, commonly referred to as the "Uniting for Peace Resolution." The resolution declared that where the Security Council could not reach a decision because of a veto, a special session of the General Assembly could be convened "with a view to making appropriate recommendations for collective measures…including the use of armed force when necessary.” Such resolutions require adoption by a two thirds majority at a specially convened emergency session of the Assembly. Because of the present automatic anti-Israel majority in the Assembly, "Uniting for Peace" resolutions have been used frequently for condemning Israeli policies. Resolutions adopted at such sessions, however, are still only recommendations and are not binding on states
There are reports that this September, the Palestinian delegation to the UN, which has observer status at the organization, will attempt to introduce a new "Uniting for Peace" resolution. There are a number of possible scenarios for such a resolution. The most likely possibility would by a call for recognition of a Palestinian state within the 1967 boundaries. In fact, a 2003 Arab sponsored General Assembly "Uniting for Peace" resolution has already called for "Affirming the necessity of ending the conflict on the basis of the two-State solution of Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace and security based on the Armistice Line of 1949." If adopted, a new such resolution would grant the Palestinians further international support for their demand for a return to the 1967 lines. It would not however be binding on Israel or on any other state, not even for those states voting for the resolution. Under international law, except for cases where a former border is inherited by new states, borders can only be delimited by agreement between the states concerned. No UN organ has the authority to delimit boundaries.
A General Assembly resolution recognizing a Palestinian state would not mean acceptance of Palestine as a member of the UN. In order to be accepted as a member of the UN, the Palestinians would have to officially declare that they are a state, an act they have refrained so far from doing. Should the Palestinians unilaterally declare themselves to be a state, it would be a violation of the Oslo agreements and of the Middle East Roadmap, but it might have the salutary effect of changing the current image of the Israel-Palestinian dispute from that of a homeless people under military occupation into a fairly minor border dispute between two neighboring states.
Even if the Palestinians were to declare themselves as a state, the General Assembly could then only accept Palestine as a member of the UN if there is a recommendation to that effect from the Security Council. In a 1950 Advisory Opinion, the International Court of Justice explicitly stated that "The General Assembly can only decide to admit [a new member state] upon the recommendation of the Security Council" and the admission of a state to membership in the United Nations cannot be done "by a decision of the General Assembly when the Security Council has made no recommendation for admission." The Security Council could make such a recommendation if it determines that Palestine fulfils the international law criteria for recognition. These requirements are that the presumptive state has an effective government, a permanent population, defined territory and an ability to conduct foreign relations. There is no need, however, for a state to have clearly defined boundaries provided there is at least some territory that is under its effective control. A Security Council recommendation cannot be adopted, however, if a permanent member of the Council vetoes it by voting against the resolution.
One other, less likely scenario, is that the General Assembly will call for a UN trusteeship to replace Israel in the West Bank and Gaza. The League of Nations mandate for Palestine could serve as a precedent, and the UN has undertaken such trusteeship functions in Namibia, East Timor, and Kosovo. For the Palestinians to propose such a trusteeship implies, however, that they do not see themselves as being ripe yet for statehood. It is unlikely that they will make such a statement. Furthermore many UN member states might be very reluctant for the UN to undertake such an expensive and thankless task. They have only to recall Britain's unhappy record as the Mandatory power.
A third possible scenario is that the Assembly will request the International Court of Justice to give an advisory opinion confirming that the 1949 armistice lines are the boundaries of the Palestinian state. Requesting an opinion on the 1949 armistice lines might, however, be self defeating for the Palestinians as it would be extremely difficult for the
World Court
to find that a temporary Armistice Demarcation Line between Israel and Jordan is a binding international boundary. The Court in its 2004 advisory opinion on the "wall" in "Occupied Palestinian Territory," an opinion that was requested under a UN Arab sponsored "Uniting for Peace" resolution, refrained from making such a ruling regarding the 1949 Armistice Line.
The underlying issue remains that the UN General Assembly can only adopt non-binding recommendations. The Assembly cannot determine boundaries nor can it confer statehood. A boundary between Israel and a future Palestinian state can only be determined by agreement between the two parties. The international community can encourage or hinder agreement, but it cannot replace the parties in this respect.

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Tuesday, April 5, 2011

The International Action in Libya: Revitalizing the Responsibility to Protect.


The success in passing Resolution 1973 in the UN Security Council (UNSC) on March 17, 2011 calling for the use of all necessary means short of occupation to protect the civilian population in Libya can be seen as a regeneration of the evolving norm of the "Responsibility to Protect" (R2P). While this norm has been thoroughly debated over the last decade, Libya is the first instance where the norm has been backed by a UNSC Chapter VII resolution and used as grounds for intervention in an ongoing crisis. 

The Background to R2P

Following tragic events such as the genocide in Rwanda and the failure of the international community to respond, then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan called upon the international community to reach a consensus on when humanitarian military intervention is justifiable. The Canadian government took upon itself the mission and formed the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty (ICISS). The commission published its report in December 2001 and chose to replace the widely used but contentious term of "humanitarian intervention" with the term "responsibility to protect." According to this notion, sovereignty is more than a right states enjoy, and includes a duty to protect their citizens and property. If the state fails to do so, the international community should assist it, and if these efforts also fail, intervention is justified in extreme cases such as genocide and ethnic cleansing.

The guidelines on R2P establish four basic principles: that the action is done out of the right intention (that it is motivated by humanitarian concerns and aimed at "averting human suffering"); that military action is used as the last resort (i.e., that other options were used or at least seriously considered); that the response is proportional; and that there are reasonable prospects for success. In addition, the ICISS called for authorization from an international organization for such action, preferably the Security Council. Since 2001, this notion has been adopted by the UN 2005 World Summit Outcome Report, which added war crimes and crimes against humanity as instances where international action is justifiable. The following year UNSC Resolution 1679, adopted parts of the 2005 outcome report concerning the evolving norm of the responsibility to protect, further enhancing the status of the emerging norm. In 2009 UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon presented his report "Implementing the Responsibility to Protect" to the General Assembly.


R2P in Libya

How do the current UNSC-authorized, NATO-led operations in Libya relate to the parameters of legitimate intervention under the emerging R2P norm?

The basic requirement to trigger intervention under R2P is a given state's lack of ability or willingness to meet its duty to protect its civilian population, a requirement certainly met in the Libyan case, where the state regime is also the main perpetrator of the crimes against the civilian population.

Qaddafi's use of force in Libya since the beginning of the protests far exceeded the level employed by his regional counterparts. Amidst reports of widespread brutality against the civilian population, the dictator further strengthened the perception of an impending humanitarian catastrophe by promising to "crush the cockroaches" who had dared to rise up against his regime. At the same time, the public resignations of Libyan ambassadors and the demands of the Libyan ambassador to the UN to stop the ongoing "genocide" also supported the notion that the regime had lost its domestic legitimacy, and that the level of violence in Libya was significant enough to prompt a reaction by the international community.

On February 26, 2011, in response to the growing violence and humanitarian crisis, the UNSC passed Resolution 1970, calling on the "government of Libya to meet its responsibility to protect its population," and for the first time openly referring to R2P. The resolution also attempted to stop the violence by urging the Libyan government to halt the violence, while imposing an arms embargo, a travel ban, and asset freeze, along with a referral of the Libyan regime to the International Criminal Court.

In parallel to these sanctions and in response to the regime's growing brutality, France and Britain started to hint of the possibility of harsher sanctions, including a no-fly zone. This option was received quite coldly at first by the international community, and severely criticized by China, Russia, Turkey, and other states. However, as the level of violence in Libya continued to rise, the international will to take stronger measures grew. An important step in that direction occurred on March 12 when the Arab League first asked the UNSC to impose a no-fly zone, strengthening the voices of countries like the UK and France, who then began co-drafting a relevant UNSC resolution.

The process that led to the passing of UNSC Resolution 1973 was therefore a gradual one, and the final authorization of "all necessary measures" to enforce a no-fly zone and protect civilians was seen as a last resort, complying with the principles of intervention under R2P. Moreover, the Chapter VII resolution serves as a legal basis for military action in Libya, ensuring that the NATO-led operations – unlike in the Kosovo case – are in compliance with the R2P requirement of acting after specific UNSC authorization.

The other three main requirements of R2P intervention (proportionality, intention, chances of success) are harder to assess, but there is reason to believe that they too are met by the current operations.  

Although the process of assessing intention and proportionality in international law is open to dispute, the mandate of the military operations in Libya is specific in terms of the objectives of the mission (protecting civilians and enforcing sanctions), while explicitly "excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory," thus seemingly meeting those criteria. In addition, the regional support for the mission (voiced by the Arab League, the Organization of the Islamic Conference, and the Gulf Cooperation Council), and the calls from Libya's rebel leaders to actively intervene heighten the legitimacy of the military operations. However, in the longer term, whether the mission and the rules of engagement will remain within these parameters is ultimately contingent upon the military reality on the ground, thus making it impossible to predetermine whether the intervention will stay within the "proportionality" requirement.

The most problematic criterion to assess in looking at the R2P standards is perhaps the reasonable prospects for success. While news reports refer that NATO's own assessment is for a 90-day operation followed by a Bosnia-styled multinational peacekeeping force, the feasibility of such a plan is far from certain. Specifically, it is yet unclear how the mission will manage to attain its goals (protecting the civilian population) without having to expand its mandate (regime change) and becoming entangled in a civil war scenario.

Despite the uncertainties of success of the current military operations, the UN-authorized intervention is clearly reflective of the R2P standards, and it has had the impact of revitalizing this emerging norm and putting it back on the map. 

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The Syria of Bashar al-Asad: At a Crossroads

For the last three decades, since the Syrian regime suppressed the Muslim Brotherhood uprising, the Baath regime of the Asad Alawi dynasty has been considered the most stable regime in the Middle East, maintaining a firm grip on the country and ruling it with an iron fist.
And still, the wave of protest engulfing the Middle East and causing the collapse of the Arab regimes in Tunisia and Egypt has spread, not surprisingly, to Syria. After all, Syria's social and economic reality is essentially no different from elsewhere in the Arab world. The young people in Syria are no different from their peers in Tunisia and Egypt, and like them, have no hopes of a better future, groan under the harsh economic distress, and suffer under the heavy hand of a brutally repressive regime.
Syrian President Bashar al-Asad initially hoped that the wave of Arab uprisings would bypass Syria. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, he stated with self-assurance – which in retrospect appears both arrogant and without foundation – that “Syria is not Egypt or Tunisia,” as his regime, unlike the regimes of Husni Mubarak and Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, enjoys the support of Syrian citizens thanks to its strong anti-Israel and anti-American stance.
However, on Friday, March 18, the fire spread to Syria too, and since then it has refused to die down. All efforts of the Syrian regime to extinguish it have so far failed. Then and on subsequent Fridays, as prayers concluded in the mosques, thousands of people throughout Syria took to the streets demanding freedom. In confrontations with Syrian security forces, which hurried to open fire, dozens of protesters were killed. In some locations, especially in outlying areas such as Dara in the south of Syria or Latakia on the Syrian coast (where there is ongoing friction between the Sunni majority and the Alawi minority), the situation at times raged out of control, and many people were killed as protesters vented their anger, targeting government institutions, public buildings, and of course posters of President Asad and his father and predecessor, Hafez al-Asad.
The Syrian regime has been dealt a blow, certainly to its image, as the protests have erupted throughout Syria, but it remains standing and prepared to fight fire with fire. Indeed, over the past few weeks the regime has proven its strength by recruiting hundreds of thousands of protestors, most of whom are brought in by the government apparatus in an organized fashion to show support for Bashar and his regime. Moreover, in Syria, unlike Egypt, the regime continues to enjoy the unconditional support of the army and security forces. These, unlike the Egyptian and Tunisian militaries, have not hesitated to disperse the demonstrations with brute and even lethal force. Indeed, the leaders of the Syrian army, most of whom are members of the Syrian president’s family, tribe, or ethnic group, know that unlike Egypt, where the Egyptian defense minister took the reins of government from Mubarak and became the favorite son of Tahrir Square, in Syria the protesters also want the heads of the top brass of the army and security forces, so that if Bashar falls, they fall too.
On March 30, 2011, some two weeks after the wave of protests reached Syria, President Asad stood before the Syrian legislature, to thunderous applause of his comrades, all loyal supporters. Bashar wanted to project self-confidence and determination in the face of his adversaries and hurried to lay the blame for the riots in Syria on an Israeli plot abetted by the West and certain Arab states, which along with the media banded together in order to dismantle the Syrian state.
Still, Bashar’s speech is noteworthy not only because of what it included, i.e., an attempt to enlist support on the basis of the lowest common denominator – hatred of Israel – but also because of what it omitted. Indeed, unlike his fellow Arab leaders, some of whom have already lost their seats while others are still fighting the protests, Bashar did not make any concessions or vague promises of change or reform. The day after the speech, Damascus announced the establishment of several committees that would examine certain changes in the emergency laws in place in Syria, but this is a meaningless step, as it is not the existence of this law or another that will change reality and grant or deny liberty and freedom.
Bashar Asad received the answer to his speech on April 1, when at the end of the Friday prayers, thousands of demonstrators came out across Syria to protest against the regime, calling for liberty and freedom. Following the pattern of recent weeks, demonstrators encountered live fire from the security forces and some were killed.
And so a new Syrian reality is forming. A country that was infamous for the iron fist of its security forces and was seen as more stable than any other Arab state is now seeing weekdays in the grip of the regime, which brings out pro-regime demonstrators en masse from their workplaces, while Fridays belong to the protesters who take to the streets at their will, especially near the mosques.
On a deeper level, one could say that for now the Syrian regime is surviving the deluge that brought down the Arab regimes in Egypt and Tunisia and has maintained its integrity and grip on the army and security apparatus. Nonetheless, it cannot put out the fire that is smoldering in the country and flares up regularly, albeit on a low level, every Friday after the prayer services in the mosques.
The protests in the streets are still limited to a few thousand, particularly in the outlying areas. Millions of Syrians, especially in Damascus, with a population of 5.5 million, or Aleppo, with a population of 5 million, are still passive observers and have yet to join the protests. The large Syrian cities contain more than half of Syria’s total population; they are mostly Sunni Arabs and they will determine the future of the regime. Should they join the protests, it will be harder for the security apparatus, overwhelmingly controlled by Alawis, members of Bashar’s own ethnic group, to suppress the protests. However, should these millions continue merely as bystanders to the events, the regime will find it easier to put out the fires. Other minorities, constituting some 40 percent of the nation’s population, are staying out of the fray for now. Jabal al-Druze, home to the Druze constituting some 5 percent of Syria’s population, is quiet, as are the northeast districts, home to the Kurds constituting some 10 percent of Syria’s population. The Christians, 13 percent of the Syrian population, prefer not to join the Sunnis coming out of the mosques. (To complete the demographic picture, the Alawis represent 12 percent of the Syrian population.)
However, the most interesting question is not only what will happen in Syria in the coming weeks, rather where the country is headed in the long term. The wave of protests that reached Syria has not scored the same success as in Egypt and Tunisia and topple the Syrian regime in one fell swoop, but it has shaken its foundations, and, like a glowing ember, the protests will continue to smolder just under the surface. Syria is no longer the most stable state in the Middle East and will continue to stagger from one Friday to the next, pitting the regime, propped up by parts of the Syrian population and the army and security apparatus, against large parts of the population that will again and again express their outrage. It is hard to know what the final result will be; at least in the past, the fate of similar struggles has been soaked in blood, and the blood, spilled mostly by the security forces and army, has tipped the scales.
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Friday, April 1, 2011

Russia’s Very Secret Services

MOSCOW—When the Soviet Union collapsed, many observers expected its fearsome intelligence apparatus to wither as well. Instead, the post-Soviet era has seen the emergence of an even more influential collection of intelligence organizations that grew out of the two premier Soviet agencies: the KGB, which combined domestic and foreign political intelligence, and the GRU, which handled military intelligence. The prominent—even dominant—role of intelligence within contemporary Russia’s political system is a sign of the Kremlin’s growing ambitions. But it also reflects a profound fear of being outmaneuvered by the West in Russia’s traditional sphere of influence, which now comprises 10 more or less independent nations that once belonged to the Soviet Union. Within that vast territory—and in the areas that directly border it—an intense and largely invisible battle for control is being fought every day.

This struggle has put the Kremlin’s intelligence agencies in direct competition with Western intelligence services, with all parties retaining some old habits left over from the Cold War. At the same time, the unique status and financial resources provided to Russia’s secret services in the early 2000s by then-President Vladimir Putin makes them even more unpredictable than their predecessor, the KGB, which was a powerful organization, but came under the firm control of the political structure. The Communist Party presided over every KGB section, department, and division. By contrast, over the last decade in Russia, the resurgent secret services have become a new elite, enjoying expanded responsibilities and immunity from public oversight or parliamentary control. Today’s Russian secret services are impenetrable to outsiders. While the KGB played by the Cold War’s rules, its inheritors are given a freer hand to make decisions on their own.

Surprisingly, though, the biggest beneficiaries of the elevation of Russian intelligence have been the authoritarian regimes that filled the vacuum after the breakup of the Soviet Union—the dictators of Central Asia, who have used Russian security forces to facilitate the abduction, even rendition, of their own opposition forces. In an unexpected reversal, Russia has become a hunting ground for the security services of many of the world’s most vicious rulers.

COMPETING SPOOKS

Today, there are three principal Russian intelligence services. The SVR, or Foreign Intelligence Service, operates largely in Western Europe and the United States. The gru, the old military intelligence service under the Soviet Union, remains intact, with virtually the same global portfolio. The FSB, or Federal Security Service, the most direct successor to the old KGB, operates principally in the former Soviet Republics, sometimes still referred to as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the loose confederation that was established to succeed the USSR after it collapsed. The FSB is also active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, both of which border the former Soviet sphere. Of course, these delineations are not set in stone, and there is persistent overlap and competition between these organizations, as agents of both the FSB and SVR are often found falling all over each other.
When the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991, the leaders of the former Soviet republics were very slow to create completely independent states. Initially, they even agreed to maintain the united armed forces of the CIS, giving Moscow a chance to retain its influence. Intelligence cooperation was a natural outgrowth of this dependency, and the Kremlin was happy to help the still-unproven leaders of these new states bolster their security structures. These relations were formalized in April 1992, when the SVR signed an agreement with its counterparts in the CIS, agreeing not to spy on each other.
 
But the relationship proved to be very much a one-way street. The SVR effectively assumed the posture of “Big Brother,” making visits to CIS capitals to attend multilateral meetings or bilateral talks, where they were sometimes received by heads of state.
 
Not all CIS members were equally happy at finding themselves once again under the direct scrutiny of the Kremlin. Throughout the 1990s, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan remained firm allies, allowing Russian military bases to remain on their soil and continuing to cooperate on intelligence. But Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine drifted in NATO’s direction, in part because Russia supported separatist movements in each of those nations. Lastly, the governments of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, long suspicious of ethnic Russians who had migrated during Soviet times, signaled their independence by purging Russians from the ranks of their security services.
 
During this time, Russia’s other security agency, the FSB, was also eager to establish its own special relations with security services in the CIS. This effort was aided in no small part by the rise of Putin, a veteran of the KGB’s First Directorate, which dealt with foreign intelligence activities. By the late 1990s, with Putin’s profile growing, the FSB had found its way into the “near-abroad,” as the former outlying Soviet republics are now called. It justified its expanded reach by pointing to a shared regional struggle against illegal drug trafficking and terrorism.
 
That explanation was nothing more than a pretext for a power grab—but it more than sufficed. By 2000, the FSB was becoming the dominant intelligence player in what had been the Soviet Union. That year, Russia backed the establishment of a CIS Antiterrorist Center, headquartered in Moscow with a Central Asian branch in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Though the center was conceived as a supranational structure, it was effectively under full FSB control—headed by the service’s first deputy director—and supervised “collective” anti-terrorist exercises in Central Asia every April. The Antiterrorist Center’s mandate was to create a database for intelligence sharing among the security services of all member countries. But the idea of pooling intelligence information was abandoned when members learned that the database would be located in Moscow. Some CIS states simply did not buy the notion that Russia had a sincere desire to help with counterterrorism efforts on their soil. Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan refused to send representatives to the center at all. They saw it, quite correctly, as a not very subtle Russian foot in their door. Still, the FSB’s timing was good. Under the umbrella of anti-terrorism, it soon had much more credible justification for its regional expansion.
 
In the early 2000s, it became evident that the political status quo in many of the post-Soviet republics was under threat. One after another, the old regimes that had been established in the early 1990s fell like dominoes in a series of popular uprisings known as the “color revolutions”: the Rose Revolution in Georgia (2003), the Orange Revolution in Ukraine (2004), and the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan (2005). These regime changes were neither predicted nor prevented by Moscow. The Kremlin and the FSB viewed these events as Western concoctions, modeled after the toppling of Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. As these events unfolded, the Kremlin became increasingly paranoid that Russia and its political allies in the region would be next. Russia’s sphere of influence, it seemed, had to be watched more carefully.

COVERT OPERATIONS

As the Kremlin turned increasingly to the FSB, it began to emerge as the single most powerful Russian secret service, especially in the former CIS regions. Although the SVR had promised not to spy within the territories, the FSB had never signed any such agreement and felt free of any obligation. As a result, in late 1999, the FSB was granted permission to establish a new directorate to focus on Russia’s nearest neighbors. The newly formed Directorate of Operative Information (UKOI) was established inside the Department of Analysis, Forecasting, and Strategic Planning. The structure of the directorate was established along geographical lines and its officers were granted the right to travel abroad—or at least to the “near-abroad.” ukoi was headed by Major General Vyacheslav Ushakov, a member of an influential group of intelligence veterans who had served together in the FSB’s regional departments in St. Petersburg and neighboring Karelia. The group included Putin himself, as well as then-FSB director Nikolai Patrushev.
 
On June 30, 2003, an amendment to the “Law on the Organs of the Federal Security Service” was adopted, stipulating that the FSB would contain a special body dealing with such foreign intelligence. In 2004, the directorate was re-named the Department of Operative Information (DOI), and its chief, Ushakov, was promoted to deputy director of the FSB. Ushakov was replaced as head of the unit by Sergei Beseda, a general who had become influential and well-connected while serving in the FSB section supervising the Administration of the President.
 
While the operations of this department are cloaked in the deepest secrecy, some of its key officials are believed to have traveled to the former Soviet republics during political turning points. In May 2005, the head of the FSB, Patrushev, claimed before the Duma, the lower house of Russia’s parliament, to have helped unmask a plot against the regime in Belarus. According to Patrushev, international NGOs, mostly based in the West, had met in the Slovak capital of Bratislava in late 2004 at the time of Ukraine’s Orange Revolution “to plan the downfall of the regime of Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko.” Surprisingly, Belarus’s own KGB never expressed any outrage at this open intervention by the FSB into its internal affairs. Indeed, the day after Patrushev’s statement, the Belarussian KGB confirmed it, suggesting that it was perfectly content to have the Russian intelligence service operating so closely in matters relating to Belarus’s national security. A few days later, the heads of the security services of the CIS countries gathered in Astana, Kazakhstan. Patrushev warned his counterparts about the dangers of the “color revolutions.”
 
But the FSB’s involvement in the near-abroad has not always gone smoothly, and at times has even backfired. In 2004, the leadership of the FSB’s intelligence department reportedly visited Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia whose independence had yet to be recognized by Russia. The FSB officers met with Raul Khadjimba, a pro-Moscow candidate running for president of Abkhazia. It was one thing for the Russian Foreign Ministry to support an Abkhazian candidate; quite another for him to receive a visit from generals in the FSB. But Khadjimba lost the election.
 
His victorious opponent made it known that he was not happy with the FSB’s presence. As a result, FSB agents ceased to operate with a free hand in Abkhazia, seriously undermining the FSB’s position in Georgia and contributing to its failure to predict the Georgian move into South Ossetia four years later, which led to full-scale war between Russia and Georgia.

SAFE HAVENS

Beginning in the mid-1990s, Russia had become a safe haven for political opponents of Central Asian regimes. Using old but still valid Soviet passports, and taking advantage of suddenly porous borders, the flow of people into Russia included key political opponents of these regimes. In response, the secret services of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan began reaching into Russia to grab people who might cause trouble for the autocratic and corrupt regimes running those countries.
 
In most cases, Russia’s secret services turned a blind eye on the Central Asian secret services’ activities on Russian soil.
 
But the system of abductions was provisional and imperfect. It lacked some important elements: a coordination center, immunity for the secret agents involved in abductions, and legal grounds for transferring the captives. These kinds of activities appeared to be at odds with post-communist Russian law, which officially maintains an established procedure for formal extraditions, overseen by the general prosecutor. A new system, designed to avoid legal extradition entirely, was soon developed by Central Asian security organizations with the connivance of the FSB.
 
The broader system was embedded in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded in 2001 by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The stated purpose of the SCO was the joint struggle against the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism, and extremism. In 2004, a special anti-terrorism organization was created within the SCO and named the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure.
 
(The English acronym, RATS, seems particularly appropriate.) RATS became the mechanism of choice for carrying out abductions across national boundaries and outside standard judicial procedures—operations quite similar to the American CIA’s practice of extraordinary rendition.
 
To improve RATS’s ability to detain suspects in the six participating states, it was necessary to guarantee absolute protection to the officers executing the operations. The SCO’s Convention on Privileges and Immunities, ratified by Russia in 2005, gave representatives of the organization the equivalent of diplomatic status.
 
They are not subject to criminal liability for any actions committed in the course of their duty, and they are immune from arrest and detention. The same unlimited immunity applies to RATS “experts”—secret service officers from any member country who are attached to RATS for the duration of their mission. Experts are shielded from arrest during and after their business trips.
 
Even their luggage cannot be searched.
 
The regime in Uzbekistan has been especially enthusiastic in its embrace of RATS. Islam Karimov, the country’s autocratic ruler, has long fought a brutal counterinsurgency campaign against Islamist opposition groups, led by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Hizb ut-Tahrir. Members of these groups had been among those who found refuge across the border in Russia. RATS provided an effective way for Karimov to eliminate them.
 
“In the early 2000s, natives from Uzbekistan living in the Volga region and considered to be members of Hizb ut-Tahrir by Uzbek secret services started to disappear,” says Yelena Ryabinina, director for the Rights for Refugees Program at the Human Rights Institute, a nongovernmental organization based in Moscow. Ryabinina has spent many days in court, defending refugees from Central Asia against illegal deportation. Many of those deported were later found in Uzbek prisons.
 
In 2004, Alisher Usmanov, a teacher at an Islamic school in the Tatarstan region of Russia, was detained by Russian police and sentenced to several months in prison for illegal possession of ammunition. Usmanov had been wanted by Uzbekistan since 1998 for what the Uzbek government claimed was an “attempt to undermine the constitutional regime of the country.” But Usmanov had been granted Russian citizenship, and thus could not be extradited, since Russia, like many other countries, refuses to extradite its citizens. On July 24, 2005, he was due to be released. Instead, he simply disappeared, claims his wife, Aisha. “When we came to the prison, we were simply told that Alisher was released at 5:00 AM and went off with the people who met him,” Aisha says.
 
It was later determined that he had been abducted directly from prison by the FSB and its Uzbek counterpart. Usmanov was delivered to the airport and flown to Uzbekistan. In November 2005 he was convicted of “undermining the constitutional system,” participation in a criminal organization and falsifying documents, and sentenced to an eight-year prison term in Uzbekistan.
 
Perhaps no party has benefited more from the RATS program than the Karimov regime, to whom Russia has supplied a steady stream of dissidents, refugees, and alleged terrorists. Reflecting the centrality of Uzbekistan to the program, the RATS headquarters was moved from Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, to the Uzbek capital of Tashkent. And in 2005, Russia placed the Islamist Hizb ut-Tahrir party, which is legal in Europe and the United States, on its national list of terrorist organizations, at the request of Uzbekistan. “The international terrorist organization Hizb ut-Tahrir and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan have made attempts to spread their activity to Russia,” FSB director Patrushev later declared.
 
Uzbekistan’s enemies are now officially considered a threat to Russian national security—another political gift for Karimov.
 
In fact, to a surprising degree, it appears that the other countries involved in RATS—especially Uzbekistan and China—have benefited far more from the program than Russia. Russia routinely ships back individuals sought by other countries but apparently receives none of those it seeks from them. According to information from Yelena Ryabinina, in 2007 Russia began to deport Chinese members of Falun Gong, a movement banned in China in 1999 for being “opposed to the Communist Party of China and the central government, that preaches idealism, theism, and feudal superstition,” according to the Chinese government. Publicly available FSB reports indicate that in the past decade, there were very few detentions of Russians in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, or China, and not a single suspect in a terrorism or extremism case has been extradited to Russia from Uzbekistan.
 
It seems like little recompense for facilitating activities that could expose Russia to international condemnation.
 
What, then, does Russia gain from RATS? The payoff, from the Kremlin’s point of view, is a higher profile for the SCO, which Russia sees as a counterbalance to the NATO and U.S. presence in the region. In the 1990s, the SCO—then known as the Shanghai Five—was a marginal group.
 
Now, its meetings are attended by the presidents of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, India and Mongolia. The SCO’s growing profile has inspired the Kremlin to think that Russia might once again play a crucial role in the region—an impossible dream without the support of Uzbekistan and China. For the Kremlin, allowing Central Asian states to hunt down their dissidents on Russian soil seems to be an acceptable price in exchange for the chance to lead a strong regional alliance, which Russia has failed to do since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

ABDUCTIONS TO ASSASSINATIONS

On June 3, 2006, a Chevrolet Tahoe carrying five Russian diplomats was cut off by a minivan and a sedan about 400 yards from the Russian embassy in the upscale Mansour neighborhood of Baghdad. Gunmen attacked the diplomats’ car. One of the diplomats, Vitaly Titov, was severely wounded and died later that day. The other four men were kidnapped. On June 19, a group of Iraqi insurgents demanded Russian troops withdraw from Chechnya and free all Muslim prisoners in Russia within 48 hours—or the diplomats would be executed. On June 25, the terrorists released a hostage video showing one man being beheaded and another shot dead, as well as the body of a third.
 
The next day Russia confirmed that the four diplomats were dead.
 
On June 28, Vladimir Putin ordered Russia’s secret services to find and kill the insurgents responsible for kidnapping and killing Russian embassy employees in Iraq. Patrushev, the FSB director, stated that the special services would do everything possible to eliminate the terrorists.
 
“We should ensure that any terrorist who has committed a crime will not avoid the responsibility,” he said. “This is not a casual assignment. It is in the logic of what we do.” In other words, revenge is what shapes the Russian secret services’ understanding of counterterrorism.

A few months later, American forces captured the lead kidnapper—an alleged senior al-Qaida commander known as Abu Nur—and turned him over to Iraqi authorities. But the killings gave Vladimir Putin an excuse to propose new legislation, allowing new and more lethal operations abroad. Aside from their retributive aims, such operations have become a means of changing the policies and behaviors of nations that have sometimes provided safe havens for Russia’s enemies.
 
Although it was presented in news reports as an emotional reaction to the diplomats’ murders, Russia’s policy of carrying out assassinations abroad had been under preparation for some time. The Duma had spent months discussing a legislative initiative that would allow the FSB to kill terrorists on foreign soil. According to Mikhail Grishankov, a deputy chairman of the Security Committee at the State Duma, the first draft of the bill was presented to the Duma in March of 2006, three months before the murder of the diplomats in Baghdad. Barely a week after Putin’s call for retribution in Iraq, both houses of parliament approved foreign assassinations by intelligence agencies.
 
The battered republic of Abkhazia appeared to be the first target after the bills were approved. Khamzat Gitsba—nicknamed “Rocky” because of his devotion to boxing—had become an Abkhazian war hero during the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict of 1992–1993. He had joined a battalion of Chechen Islamists who entered the battle on the Abkhaz side during the war. Later, he was one of the terrorists who took Russian and foreign tourists hostage on the Avrasia ferry in Turkish waters in January 1996.
 
At some point after 2000, Gitsba returned to Abkhazia to take charge of a radical Muslim group in the region.
 
On August 17, 2007, he was shot dead in the center of the tiny town of Gudauta, machine-gunned in front of a mosque by two assassins who waited for him in a Chrysler.

An hour later the Chrysler was found burning. The local police established that the car had been driven across the Russian-Abkhaz border at the Psou River a few days prior to the murder. Video cameras at the Abkhaz customs station identified the Chrysler’s registration plates, but because Abkhazia did not keep records of all those driving into the republic, the identities of the drivers were impossible to prove. The Abkhaz authorities turned to the Russian border guards, but Moscow media reported that the Russians said such a vehicle never crossed the frontier.
 
Around the same time, a spate of murders of Chechens occurred in Azerbaijan. The Chechen insurgency was effectively wiped out during its second war with Russia, and Chechnya is now ruled by a Moscow-friendly autocrat, Ramzan Kadyrov. Yet Russian intelligence agencies and Kadyrov’s squads still vigorously pursue any Chechen they suspect of anti-Moscow activity. In early 2007, the Council of Chechen Refugees in Azerbaijan sent an appeal to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, reporting that the situation for Chechen refugees in Azerbaijan had “seriously worsened,” particularly as a result of “threats to the personal safety of our citizens who came to this country in search of refuge and protection.” The council referred to incidents involving “the abduction of people,” citing the case of Ruslan Eliev, who went missing in Baku in November 2006. In March 2007, his dead body was found in Chechnya near the village of Samashki. In November, Imran Gaziev, deputy chief of the representative office of the unrecognized Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in Azerbaijan, was killed in the capital. A gunman shot Gaziev as he was getting out of his car.
 
In 2008 and 2009, a series of assassinations of Chechens took place in Turkey. In September 2008, Gaji Edilsultanov, a former Chechen field commander, was shot dead on a street in the Başakşehir district of Istanbul.

Three months later, on December 10, 2008, former Chechen warlord Islam Janibekov was also assassinated in Istanbul, in front of his wife and children. He received three gunshot wounds to his head and died on the spot. The Russian magazine Spetsnaz, which has close ties to Russian special operations forces, alleged that Janibekov was wanted by Russian authorities for terrorist attacks in the cities of Yessentuki and Mineralnye Vody and in the republic of Karachay-Cherkessia in the early 2000s. Musa Atayev (also known as Ali Osaev), another Chechen rebel, was killed in Istanbul on February 26, 2009.
 
These assassinations were apparently intended not only to reduce support for the Chechen insurgency abroad, but also to change the policy of the countries where these rebels—considered “enemies of the state”—had taken refuge. The strategy has proven effective.
 
In the 1990s and early 2000s, Azeri authorities had tolerated Chechen militants on their soil, and allowed a Chechen office to operate in Baku. But in the mid-2000s, relations between Russia and Azerbaijan had surprisingly improved, and sources in Russia’s Interior Ministry confirm the existence of an agreement with Azeri law enforcement agencies that allows actions by Russian intelligence units and free passage across the border. (When we first published this information in the Moscow newspaper Novaya Gazeta, in December 2007, no denial was made by either Russia or Azerbaijan.)
 
Many Chechen refugees had found asylum in Turkey, mostly in Istanbul, and Russian secret services had long accused Turkey of providing support to Chechen rebels. Evidently, the assassinations in Istanbul did not damage Russian-Turkish relations, and in 2010 Turkey signed a deal lifting mutual visa requirements with Russia.

DEEPLY INGRAINED PARANOIA

Last December, the WikiLeaks “CableGate” trove of documents included a message sent from the American embassy in Moscow to Washington in advance of a visit to Moscow by the director of the FBI on November 9, 2009. In the cable, Ambassador John Beyrle described the leadership of the Russian secret services as “the most influential opponents of the engagement agenda”—the Obama administration’s “reset” policy toward Russia. Russian intelligence chiefs, Beyrle noted, “tend toward a Cold War mentality, which sees the U.S. and its allies intent on undermining Russia—and they have made public accusations to that effect.”
 
Unable to rid themselves of that deeply ingrained KGB mind-set, the Russian secret services remain locked in the past, repeatedly exhibiting the same paranoia toward the West that marked decades of Cold War confrontation. At the same time, the closeness of high-ranking intelligence officials to the Kremlin—unprecedented even when compared with Soviet times—makes it difficult for Russian leaders to arrive at any independent assessment of information provided by the secret services. With increasing frequency, this has resulted in miscalculations and errors in Kremlin policy at home and abroad, especially when dealing with Russia’s enemies—real or perceived.
 
Facing terrorism in the North Caucasus, the FSB makes paranoid claims about the involvement of Western intelligence services in the activities of local Islamist rebels, compromising the ability of those services to help Moscow find and extradite militants who have fled Russia. As a result, Putin’s secret services have embraced assassinations, seriously damaging Russia’s reputation. A Russian hand is now suspected every time a Kremlin opponent is killed abroad.
 
By engaging in battles to counter a mostly imaginary threat of Western intelligence influence throughout former Soviet territory, Russia’s secret services repeatedly provide ammunition to the Kremlin’s critics, who promulgate an equally mythical image of an “imperial Russia.” In response, the Kremlin seeks to silence all criticism of the secret services in the wake of their failures. It’s a vicious cycle, one that effectively licenses, even mandates, that the FSB and SVR adopt ever more adventurous policies and brutal methods.
 
Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan are Russian investigative journalists who cover the operations of Russian security services. They are co-founders of the website Agentura, which chronicles the services’ activities. Last year, they co-authored The New Nobility: The Restoration of Russia’s Security State and the Enduring Legacy of the KGB (PublicAffairs).

font:  World Policy Journal, Spring 2011