Saturday, December 24, 2016

Cohen's Mossad: One Year On


Yossi Cohen, Head of the Mossad (Photo: AP)


Yossi Cohen concludes his first year as the Head of the Mossad, the Head of the IDF Personnel Directorate resigns his position and coalitions are forming up to compete over IMOD's technological tender. Amir Rapaport's weekly column.

The reports that started coming in from Tunisia last Friday were reminiscent of past stories: once again, a mysterious assassination of a key enemy figure, a nimble finger pulling the trigger of a silenced handgun and then promptly disappears.

This time, the Tunisian media reported the assassination of a UAV engineer, Mohammad al-Zawahri, shot from point-blank range in his car in the town of Sfax in central Tunisia. It was alleged that the Mossad had kept him under surveillance owing to his connections with Hamas.

Truth or fiction? Israel normally ignores such reports, but sometimes admission comes as a result of failure (as in the case of the attempted assassination of Khaled Mashal in Amman in 1997) or owing to the long time that has elapsed since the actual incident (as in the case of the assassination of Abu-Jihad, also in Tunisia, in 1988).

Apparently, there is a motive: Israel is keenly interested in preventing Hamas from developing advanced UAVs, and particularly unmanned 'Kamikaze' UAVs that might penetrate the defensive envelope of the Iron Dome system. But the speculations will remain intact, as in this case there will be no Israeli admission of the assassination, and probably no denial either.

In any case, the incident in Tunisia has shed some light on the activity of the current head of the Mossad, who happens to conclude his first year in office these days.

So what can we say about Yossi Cohen's first year as head of the Mossad? Some of the things had been included in Israel Defense's year-end report for the previous year, and it's time to repeat them. Well, Cohen has not initiated any revolutionary moves during his first year as head of the Mossad, but was one of the most influential figures with regard to Israeli national security in 2016, and will continue to be a key figure in the next year as well.

One primary reason for Cohen's dominant status involves the circumstances, both internal and regional, in Jerusalem (and even in Tel-Aviv). The number of people whose defense and diplomatic views the Prime Minister values is very small. Netanyahu's environment is in short supply of figures possessing the background and status and after so many years as Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu conducts himself as someone who does not really appreciate the opinions of the other members of his cabinet, who are predominately less seasoned than Netanyahu himself with regard to defense/security and political affairs.

Even the National Security Council is not a significant function. So far, the Prime Minister has not even appointed a permanent replacement for Yossi Cohen, who had served as the head of the NSC before he was appointed as the head of the Mossad. The Prime Minister holds regular meetings with the Minister of Defense as well as with the head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate and the head of ISA, but Yossi Cohen's importance as a close confidant and as someone the Prime Minister holds in high regard is particularly high.

The regional circumstances also highlight Yossi Cohen, as almost nothing is what it appears to be on the surface: from Turkey through Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Russia, Jordan, Europe and naturally – the USA. Various alliances were devised in 2016, written and verbal agreements were concluded, and the Mossad under Yossi Cohen's leadership is, apparently, highly important in all of the various theaters.

Internally, within the Mossad, Yossi Cohen, 55, consolidated his status as boss very quickly. Everyone within the entire intelligence community is aware of his special relations with Prime Minister Netanyahu, and if anyone should miss it, Cohen will casually drop the Prime Minister's name. He plays this card quite often.

Cohen's predecessors at the top of the Mossad had initiated some revolutionary moves during their first year in office. Meir Dagan, for example, increased the ranks of the Mossad dramatically, steering the agency toward war against the Iranian nuclear program. Tamir Pardo had initiated a substantial change in the agency's organizational structure.

Cohen, on the other hand, has thus far avoided any revolutionary moves, but he is replacing many senior officers within the agency's top echelon so as to form a top echelon that will be exactly to his liking. For example, a new head has been appointed recently to the Mossad's Intelligence Division. B. replaced Z., who had served in the IDF Intelligence Directorate. As in his previous positions, Cohen remains a workaholic. His door is always open to random callers who wish to present their affairs to him, even without an appointment, and he maintains the image that has accompanied him since he was very young, that of a "fashion model" – from his prestigious clothes to his dancing, in full view of the cameras, at a recent performance of Shlomo Artzi – a popular Israeli singer.

Above all, Yossi Cohen always was and remains an operations man, a case officer through and through, a master of field operations like the recent operation executed – or not – in Tunisia.

Cohen's phenomenal interpersonal skills are reflected in his contacts with his subordinates and peers. He regards operational matters more highly than anything else.

As far as the operational aspect is concerned, the war against terrorism remains a worldwide effort, but the Iranian issue has not been put on ice, either: the present assignment of the Mossad is to deliver irrefutable proof to the effect that Iran violates the agreement with the superpowers (which would happen sooner or later).

As far as covert operations are concerned, glory is unattainable: the most successful operations of the Mossad are those of which only very few people are aware. On the other hand, the failures, as in the case of the assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh (attributed to the Mossad) or the Khaled Mashal affair, become a matter of public knowledge. Cohen will prefer to complete his term in office with none of the Mossad's operations being publicized.

From the Mossad to the IDF: the decision by the Head of the IDF Personnel Directorate, Maj. Gen. Hagai Topolanski, to resign his position should be regarded as a model of personal accountability, but this apparently exaggerated move also raises questions.

The main reason for those questions is the fact that Topolanski was appointed as Head of the Personnel Directorate only for a period of waiting and maturing in preparation for the battle over the position of the next Commandant of IAF, who will take office in the summer of 2017.

Topolanski is a top fighter pilot and a highly regarded IAF commander, and the environment of the IDF Personnel Directorate is not his natural element. He has recently learned that Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin, rather than him, will be the next Commandant of IAF. Topolanski was intended to remain in the position of Head of the Personnel Directorate for two more years. It is doubtful whether he would have resigned if he had been appointed as the next Commandant of IAF. In fact – there is no doubt about it: he would not have resigned.

The locomotive: meanwhile, the national cyber center (CERT) has been inaugurated in Beersheba this week, while among the industries, coalitions are forming up to compete for IMOD's tender for the technological management of the project involving the relocation of the IDF to the south during the next decade. The tender deadline is drawing near and tensions are mounting. These are the emerging coalitions: ECI with the Tata Corporation of India; IBM, Rafael, MalamTeam, Dell, Cisco and Bynet, possibly with General Dynamics as well; Bezeq International with the Rackspace Company of the USA and IAI with Leidos (formerly the IT Division of Lockheed Martin).


Font: Israel Defense