King Abdullah addressing the
17th Parliament in
February
10, 2013
Photo:
|
On
January 23, 2013 elections were held for the seventeenth Jordanian parliament,
and some 1,475 candidates competed for 150 parliamentary seats. Of a total
population of 6.2 million, 3.3 million Jordanians are eligible to vote, and of
these, 2.3 million were registered. Voter turnout indicated that 1.27 million
Jordanians, some 56.7 percent of those registered, exercised their right to
vote, an increase of some 4 percent over the 2010 elections. Attempts by the
palace to engage the Muslim Brotherhood in dialogue prior to the elections were
unsuccessful, and the movement called for a boycott of the elections.
The
discussion on the Jordanian social networks about the elections has focused on
three main issues:
a.
The roadmap of King Abdullah II,
which seeks a transition to a parliamentary democracy and a gradual change in
the social pyramid through a focus on the next generation, at the expense of
tribal leaders who have long been the King’s base of
support.
b.
The consequences of the "Arab
Spring" for Jordan, the fear of loss of control and stability, and the young
people’s preference for evolution over revolution.
c.
The election results: a tactical
victory for the King, the failure of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the victory of
the conservatives, tribal leaders, and even businessmen.
The King’s roadmap to democracy and
the expansion of civilian involvement: Some two weeks before the
parliamentary elections and after a number of rounds of meetings between the
King and opposition figures, but particularly with groups of young people, the
King chose to publish on his official website and on social networking sites two
documents discussing his vision: "Making our Democratic System Work for All
Jordanians," and "Our Journey to Forge our Path towards
Democracy."
In the
former document, Abdullah II promises for the first time in Jordanian history
that the prime minister will be chosen on the basis of “consultations with the
majority coalition of parliamentary blocs,” or if there is no clear majority in
the Lower House, on the basis of “consultation with all parliamentary blocs.”
However, he indicates that his vision of turning Jordan into a constitutional
monarchy with an active parliament cannot be put into practice immediately, and
is likely to involve a gradual process unfolding over “several parliamentary
cycles.” In addition, the King explains that the mechanism required to complete
the democratic process must be based on three conditions: a. "true national
parties"; b. the development and professionalization of the civil service; and
c. "a change in parliamentary conventions" to support parliamentary government.
The King emphasizes the need for political pluralism, an active civil society,
and constitutional protection of the rights of minorities living in
Jordan .
In the
second document, the King discusses his goal of encouraging an internal debate
about the major issues facing the country and Jordan ’s
progress toward democratic development. He stresses the importance of focusing
on the national interest, stating that “no individual or group will get
everything it wants,” and that Jordanians must compromise for the sake of their
common interest. The King invites Jordanians to help tackle key social issues,
among them poverty, unemployment, corruption, the cost of living,
transportation, and health services.
The consequences of the "Arab
Spring": The next
generation is demanding evolution, not revolution. The discussion on the social
networks suggests that the Jordanians, be they Palestinian or Transjordanian,
see the "Arab Spring" as an existential threat to the security, integrity, and
future of the Hashemite Kingdom . If initially they waved the
banner of “social justice” and the demand for democracy, the recent elections
show some maturation and a better understanding of the situation. When the
Jordanians look to the north (Syria), to the east (Iraq), to the south (Egypt),
and even to the West (the Palestinians), they see civil wars, death, chaos,
poverty, refugees, extremism, and the collapse of governmental systems. The
social media discourse indicates that at this point, the younger generation
(20-40 years old) sees the Arab spring as a risk more than an opportunity,
despite their aspiration to make changes in Jordan 's social,
economic, and political structure. The online criticism of the regime and the
parliament has changed direction, and the current discussion is about
responsibility, the need for a change in the socio-cultural structure, and the
building of a non-corrupt, robust, hardworking society that sports active social
and political involvement from its citizens. However, as long as there is no
in-depth change in society and a change in the political system, namely, party
pluralism and a transition from particularistic interests to national interests,
the change in governments will be cosmetic only.
Election results: The analysis by Jordanian bloggers of the dry numbers from the election results highlights three themes:
a. Long live the King and
long live the Kingdom: The King’s extensive work to forge a direct dialogue with
young activists in the kingdom has borne fruit. Young people who in the past
were apathetic and refrained from voting this time went to the polling stations
and documented the election process to prove that there was no fraud. In spite
of many calls to boycott the elections and to hold demonstrations close to
election day, Jordanian citizens elected to vote. This indicates the support of
both the old and the new centers of power for the King, and the desire to give
him a stable basis for legitimacy against opposition forces that attempt to
undermine the stability of the kingdom.
b. The failure of the
Muslim Brotherhood: Although the Islamists (from the centrist stream) who are
not connected to the Muslim Brotherhood won 37 seats in the parliament (about 25
percent), the consensus among social media users is that the success of the
election process, the relatively high voter turnout, and the lack of a massive
boycott of the elections constitute a major blow for the Muslim Brotherhood. The
Jordanian public, which sees political Islam growing stronger in
Egypt , Syria , and among the Palestinians, is not
interested in seeing Jordan descend into chaos. The
traditional center of power – tribal leaders – and the rising centers of power –
young Transjordanian activists – have in practice joined together against the
Muslim Brotherhood.
c. A crushing victory for
tribal leaders, conservatives, and regime loyalists: The sense is that nothing
has changed, and that those who won the elections are the same familiar faces
and figures who perpetuate the old system that Jordan ’s young
people wish to change. Therefore, there is much skepticism about the King’s
ability to make any real change and implement reforms.
Conclusion
Preparing for the elections, the
King made effective use of the potential of social networks, which allowed a
direct approach to liberal young people who want change while maintaining
stability in the kingdom. Given the results of the elections, the King knows
that his room for flexibility to undertake far reaching reforms is limited, with
his basis for legitimacy resting on tribal leaders and those with provincial and
tribal interests. The next generation will support the King as long as he
establishes a gradual process to weaken the traditional and Islamic centers of
power, promotes free political discussion, and allows the growth of a young
political leadership, while constructing a broad civil partnership. In a process
that will unfold over a number of years, a young and more urban and modern,
leadership will emerge that can be an alternative basis for legitimacy and
support for the King.
The
younger generation in Jordan is proposing a softer
alternative to the violent and bloody model of the Arab spring. This approach
advocates evolution, not revolution, gradual internal changes that do not prompt
a breakdown of existing frameworks and the collapse of the
social-economic-political pyramid, which would lead to bloodshed and chaos.
Existential fear unites those demanding change around the King, instead of
spurring them to oppose him.
The
monarchy in Jordan is expected to grow stronger
if the King correctly exploits the new trend and reinforces it with
modernization and democratization processes and the creation of conditions for
the emergence of a young leadership. Nevertheless, as the election results
indicate, the traditional centers of power will not cede their influence easily.
The question is, then, whether the positive changes and trends among the younger
generation in Jordan and the
roadmap outlined by the King succeed in maintaining the regime’s stability and
the socio-political structure of the Hashemite Kingdom .
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