The upheavals in the Arab world have created a situation that abounds with challenges for Russia, which has found itself sidelined in the Middle East by the Sunni coalition, working – in Russia’s eyes – in concert with the West.
From
Russia’s point of view, the Middle East has now become a battleground for
regional and global powers in their struggle over the future order. This
confrontation has grown particularly acute because of the civil war in Syria
between the Western-oriented Sunni camp and the Shiite camp, backed by Russia
and China. Indeed, in this renewed conflict between global powers, Russia went
from being a secondary player that cooperated with the West in the revolutions
in North Africa to a dominant actor.
In the
Syrian conflict, where it is waging a stubborn battle to defend its regional
status, Russia has had some success thanks to a tactic that includes assistance
to Syria. At work is an effort to isolate the battlefield (through extensive
use of Russia's veto power in the UN and pressure to undermine any intentions
of military intervention in Syria) and military and economic assistance to the
Syrian regime, which consequently is managing to retain its relative advantage
on the ground. While Russia has so far played the Syrian chapter well, it is
also acting to ensure its future status in Syria, with attempts at dialogue
with the Syrian opposition and preparation for the dissolution of the state. In
this context, the Russians are reaching out to the various ethnic, religious,
and other factions and groups in Syria and abroad.
Recently
the confrontation has broadened, with Turkey increasing its intervention in the
crisis, both vis-à-vis Syria and by directly challenging Russia.
Turkish-Russian tensions, which surfaces in contexts other than the Middle East
(such as in the Caucasus), is liable to escalate into a direct confrontation.
At present, the friction between them also entails competition for influence
vis-à-vis the Kurds throughout the region.
Russian-Western tensions are not limited to the Middle East.
Russia feels Western pressure in regions important to it along its borders in
the states of the former Soviet Union. Turkey seeks to expand the influence of
NATO and sideline Russia in the Caucasus, adding fuel to the fire of
Russian-Western tensions. Apparently Russia is motivated to cling to its
stubborn stance in Syria at least in part by its desire to distance the United
States from Russian areas of interest along its borders and confine it to the
Middle East.
Recent changes in Russia’s conduct in the Middle East are
evident. Moscow is becoming more assertive, moving beyond the Syrian conflict
and the radical axis, and spreading to other areas. This is the conclusion from
a review of several areas:
- Iran: Russian-Iranian cooperation continues against the
background of the developments in Syria. This was reflected recently in renewed
expressions of Russian support for Iran, countering the West's campaign against
Iran’s nuclear program.
- Iraq: Along with Russian efforts to regain a serious
presence in the country, Prime Minister al-Maliki recently visited Russia.
During his visit various agreements were signed, including a $4.2 billion arms
deals and oil production contracts. Iraq, in tense relations with its Persian
Gulf neighbors on the one side and Turkey on the other, is thus repositioning
itself in the region in clear defiance of the United States.
- Egypt is Russia's next objective. Recently Russia has spared
no effort to interest the current Egyptian regime in restoring cooperation,
damaged during the "Arab Spring," to its former state. Russian
Foreign Minister Lavrov is scheduled to visit Cairo soon, and Egypt will likely
respond favorably to Russia’s overtures.
- Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states: These nations, which since
the "Arab Spring" have been battling the Shiite axis and trying to
keep Russia out of the region, have ironically enough found themselves courted
by Russia as it attempts to interest them in cooperation with tempting offers
of military equipment. Foreign Minister Lavrov is expected to visit Saudi
Arabia and other states on his way from Egypt, and some suggest that he will
bring with him proposals to defend the Gulf states against the radical
elements.
- Jordan too is within Russia’s sphere of interest, also
apparently as a way to promote Russian influence over Jordan's domestic
affairs. The full picture is not yet clear, but one may discern Russian designs
in this direction.
- The Palestinians: Russia was and remains supremely
interested in reviving the political process in the Israeli-Palestinian channel
as a convenient platform for Russia to return to international affairs in the
region and divert attention away from other centers of tension in which it is
involved. Its support of Hamas has never diminished, even as it has continued
to maintain a dialogue with the Palestinian Authority, hoping to create an
opportunity to appear as a mediator between the two.
- Israel: There was a recent important breakthrough in
bilateral relations, concerning joint ventures with strategic significance for
Russia. This cooperation helps Russia extricate itself from its regional
isolation and the negative ramifications of the "Arab Spring."
- Africa too, is in Russia’s new sphere of interest. The
Russian President’s special envoy to the region, Mikhail Margelov, recently
visited several states in eastern and central Africa in an effort to promote
ideas for joint political and economic ventures.
An
examination of the gamut of Russian activities in the Middle East raises the
question of their common denominator. These activities are likely part of a
clearly designed program, which on the face of it seems to be a diplomatic
counter-offensive intended to extricate Russia from its isolation in the Middle
East and restore its former status and recover former assets harmed by the
"Arab Spring" and the regional Sunni-Western alliance. If so, we are
looking at a Russian framework for overcoming its marginal status by promoting
direct arrangements with regional states, wooing them with tempting offers, and
waiting to reap at least some success, and perhaps even reestablish a bloc of
supportive nations.
At the same
time, it is also possible that we are looking at a much more complex and daring
program, whose objective is to jumpstart a more far-reaching process. Perhaps
at work is the start of a Russian program intended as a coordinated and
concerted effort to establish a new regional order. In that case, the Russian
framework includes moves that cover the entire region and are intended to
change the current geopolitical reality in Syria, Iraq, and the Kurdish regions
and beyond. There is significant, cumulative evidence supporting this
possibility.
As usual in such situations, it is too early to assess fully
what may ensue from a Russian program of this sort. In any case, it is evident
that Russia is engaged in a comprehensive counter-offensive, conducted in all
likelihood according to a clearly defined framework, which could have the power
to affect the future shape of the region. Should this occur, even only in part,
there is much food for thought for Israel regarding the implications of the new
international reality taking shape around it, as well as more than a few issues
that must be worked out with Russia.
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