In the two rounds of voting in the referendum on
The Shrinking Base of the Muslim
Brotherhood
Public opinion leaders on the
networks emphasize that only 10 million Egyptians voted in favor of the
constitution that affects 90 million citizens, while 7 million voted against.
The fact that 68 percent of those eligible to vote boycotted the referendum is a
reflection of the lack of confidence in the system.
Upper Egypt (South): Although the
south is also poor with high illiteracy rates, 81 percent voted in favor of the
constitution, which the social networks attribute to hatred of and prejudice
against the large Coptic population. Islamist imams played the ethnic card,
preaching in their Friday sermons: “You have to choose: the Christians or us.
Decide whom you want: Muhammad or George." The majority of the Copts boycotted
the elections. In the sentiment voiced on the Egyptian social networks,
Egypt "is truly a country where the
dead can vote, but the Copts can't.”
Chaos: Lawlessness and Poor
Governance
The regime's incompetence in running
the country, its failure to deal with the economic crisis, and the weakening of
law and order are popular topics of discussion in the social media. Although the
Muslim Brotherhood is successful in mobilizing support in elections, it is
unable to govern effectively. Five months after President Morsi was elected, he
is still unable to pass laws without being forced to suspend or rescind them
shortly afterwards. Between early October and December, Morsi enacted four laws:
a “constitutional declaration” that granted him absolute power, a ban on
pornography, a curfew on shops and cafes, and tax hikes on soft drinks, alcohol,
and cigarettes. All were suspended or rescinded because of widespread outrage on
the social networks. In December, after the decision was announced that the
referendum would proceed as scheduled even in the absence of a national
consensus, many senior officials announced their resignation: Egyptian Central
Bank Governor Farouq el-Oqda, Egyptian Vice President and former Judge Mahmoud
Mekki, the new public prosecutor Talaat Ibrahim, Minister of Communications Hany
Mahmoud, Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Mohamed Mahsoub, and several
presidential advisors. Attempting to preserve a facade of stability, President
Morsi announced that he did not accept their resignations, forcing the officials
to withdraw them.
Weakening of Internal
Security
Descriptions abound of entire
neighborhoods that have armed themselves to protect their residents from theft,
violence, and other criminal activity. In December, 30 party headquarters and
offices of the Muslim Brotherhood were vandalized, and some even torched. The
main office of the al-Wafd party, the offices of the independent media, and
several Cairo police stations were attacked, and
two Salafi preachers in Alexandria were forced to take refuge in
mosques after being chased by angry mobs. Meanwhile, the Sinai Peninsula has become fertile ground for terrorism
and organized crime, including weapons and drug smuggling, which has created a
flourishing black market in gas and basic foodstuffs.
The Collapse of the Socioeconomic
Pyramid
One of the goals of the Egyptian
revolution was to replace the traditional socioeconomic and political structure
with a more democratic and liberal alternative. The first year of the revolution
witnessed the collapse of the top tier of the pyramid, including the removal of
President Mubarak, senior officials in his administration, and later, the
Supreme Council of Armed Forces. The second year of the revolution featured the
victory of political Islam and its clash with the secular liberal camp. However,
the battle between these two middle class forces over Egypt 's future
identity is becoming increasingly burdensome on the lower class. In the third
year of the revolution, two groups from the bottom of the pyramid are expected
to make their own breakthrough: the poor and the radical Salafis. These groups
were among the 68 percent who did not vote in the referendum, either because of
a lack of interest and frustration, or because the only law they recognize is
“God’s law.” Any economic reform that results in price hikes of food, fuel, and
cigarettes could easily ignite this highly volatile
situation.
Future Challenges: Polarization and
Collapse
Taken together, incompetent
governance, weak internal security, economic deterioration, the stagnant tourism
industry, and the ongoing civil revolt in Egypt
are driving the country towards a severe crisis. Despite the success of the
Islamist camp in every election thus far, the secular liberal camp is gaining
momentum and their political and organizational power is growing stronger.
Although the leaderships of both camps want to avoid complete economic collapse,
fear and rejection of the other distracts them from the nation's needs. Locked
in this zero-sum struggle over the rule of sharia or liberal freedoms,
it is clear to both sides that whoever blinks first will lose. The social
networks note that until now, “Sharia has yet to feed even a single
empty stomach,” and that freedom and human rights will therefore prove
triumphant.
The balance of power between the
Islamist and secular liberal camps will inevitably affect the character and
identity of Egypt . The current socioeconomic
structure is unstable given the imbalance between government, the economy, civil
society, religion, and internal security. According to the assessment of public
opinion leaders on the social networks, despite domestic and foreign interests
in Egypt 's stability, socioeconomic
collapse is inevitable unless the two camps reach a consensus.
Font: המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומ
Font: המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומ
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